Main ENSO prediction page

Nino 3.4 forecast from Oct. 2019

The Nino3.4 index anomaly forecast made from Oct. 2019 using our model.
The base period for anomaly computation is 1981-2010.
The black line shows the end of the model training interval (the index is estimated by the ERSST_V5 data which was actually used for training).
The gray dashed line (if any) shows the values of Nino 3.4 anomaly estimated by the up-to-date ERSST_V5 data; note that in the up-to-date ERSST_V5 dataset some previous values may be corrected (usually 1-2 last months).
The blue line corresponds to the values of index predicted by the model.
The shaded blue area corresponds to the 65% confidence interval provided by the model.
The dashed lines mark zero anomaly level and thresold-levels of 0.5 degrees above and below zero anomaly.

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Our previous ENSO predictions (year-month):
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2019-10 2019-11 2019-12