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Nino 3.4 forecast from Nov. 2019

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The Nino3.4 index anomaly forecast made from Nov. 2019 using our model. The base period for anomaly computation is 1981-2010. The black line shows the end of the model training interval (the index is estimated by the ERSST_V5 data which was actually used for training). The gray dashed line (if any) shows the values of Nino 3.4 anomaly estimated by the up-to-date ERSST_V5 data; note that in the up-to-date ERSST_V5 dataset some previous values may be corrected (usually 1-2 last months). The blue line corresponds to the values of index predicted by the model. The shaded blue area corresponds to the 65% confidence interval provided by the model. The dashed lines mark zero anomaly level and thresold-levels of 0.5 degrees above and below zero anomaly.

Our previous ENSO predictions (year-month):
2019-10   2019-11   2019-12